Compliance Level 5: Investment Simulation
Monte Carlo / wealth simulation with inherent uncertainty
Run the numbers on your own investing plan and see the full range of realistic outcomes — best case, worst case, and everything in between — not just a single average guess.
Scenario comparison (100 simulations each)
| Scenario | Return | Volatility | Median Final | P10 (Bad) | P90 (Good) | Total Contributions | Total Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4% | 5% | £641,482.35 | £500,559.46 | £838,223.07 | £260,000.00 | £399,153.96 |
| Balanced | 7% | 12% | £1,212,435.50 | £672,885.84 | £2,527,181.06 | £260,000.00 | £1,215,834.89 |
| Aggressive | 10% | 20% | £1,969,265.99 | £749,776.02 | £7,514,808.95 | £260,000.00 | £3,270,251.55 |
Percentile paths for Balanced scenario (first 20 years)
| Year | P10 (Pessimistic) | P25 | P50 (Median) | P75 | P90 (Optimistic) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | £51,070.50 | £55,801.69 | £60,532.87 | £65,199.02 | £69,865.17 |
| 2 | £57,486.45 | £64,748.77 | £72,011.08 | £79,279.14 | £86,547.19 |
| 3 | £62,229.75 | £71,679.98 | £81,130.21 | £93,478.50 | £105,826.78 |
| 4 | £70,304.96 | £80,070.95 | £89,836.94 | £106,499.79 | £123,162.64 |
| 5 | £79,463.65 | £90,747.43 | £102,031.21 | £122,855.78 | £143,680.34 |
| 6 | £88,008.81 | £101,549.02 | £115,089.22 | £142,677.56 | £170,265.89 |
| 7 | £96,583.47 | £113,108.01 | £129,632.54 | £158,664.70 | £187,696.86 |
| 8 | £104,359.13 | £124,696.48 | £145,033.82 | £173,735.20 | £202,436.57 |
| 9 | £117,051.92 | £137,882.48 | £158,713.03 | £197,363.21 | £236,013.39 |
| 10 | £135,092.84 | £153,625.71 | £172,158.57 | £217,447.62 | £262,736.67 |
| 11 | £140,849.87 | £165,950.29 | £191,050.70 | £246,635.48 | £302,220.26 |
| 12 | £147,651.66 | £177,726.84 | £207,802.01 | £262,827.62 | £317,853.22 |
| 13 | £158,496.37 | £191,319.85 | £224,143.33 | £304,714.54 | £385,285.74 |
| 14 | £165,501.48 | £209,203.02 | £252,904.56 | £326,667.82 | £400,431.07 |
| 15 | £172,778.37 | £229,555.60 | £286,332.83 | £368,281.71 | £450,230.60 |
| 16 | £186,520.06 | £245,838.25 | £305,156.44 | £388,528.62 | £471,900.80 |
| 17 | £206,382.38 | £267,593.57 | £328,804.76 | £417,515.08 | £506,225.40 |
| 18 | £222,633.82 | £294,100.41 | £365,567.00 | £458,737.10 | £551,907.20 |
| 19 | £250,151.99 | £320,453.53 | £390,755.07 | £499,983.44 | £609,211.81 |
| 20 | £268,126.22 | £339,516.74 | £410,907.26 | £540,038.44 | £669,169.62 |
Monte Carlo retirement projection
Run thousands of Monte Carlo simulations to see the probability of reaching your wealth goals under different market scenarios.
Run thousands of Monte Carlo simulations to see the probability of reaching your wealth goals under different market scenarios.
The calculation uses industry-standard financial mathematics to provide accurate estimates. Our methodology is transparent and based on established formulas.
Our calculations use standard financial formulas and are accurate for the inputs provided. However, real-world conditions (fees, rate changes, taxes) may cause variations.
Use this calculator for educational planning and rough estimates. For major decisions, consult qualified professionals who can review your complete financial situation.
Uses Monte Carlo simulation with randomized returns based on historical mean and volatility to generate percentile distributions.
Disclaimer: Simulations use historical assumptions that may not predict future market behavior. High uncertainty involved.
Important Disclaimer
This calculator provides estimates for educational purposes only. Results are based on the inputs you provide and standard financial formulas. They do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
Monte Carlo runs thousands of random scenarios based on your expected return and volatility. It shows the range of possible outcomes — not just the average — so you can plan for best and worst cases.
P10 means 10% of simulations were worse (pessimistic). P50 is the median (middle). P90 means 90% were worse (optimistic). The range between P10 and P90 captures 80% of likely outcomes.
Conservative: 4-5% return, 5-8% volatility (bonds/cash). Balanced: 6-8% return, 10-15% volatility (60/40 stocks/bonds). Aggressive: 9-12% return, 18-25% volatility (mostly stocks).
Inflation erodes purchasing power. A $1M portfolio in 30 years at 3% inflation is worth ~$412k today. The calculator shows both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) values.
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⚠⚠ Critical Investment Warning
This calculator provides estimates for educational purposes only. Results are based on the inputs you provide and standard financial formulas. They do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.